5 Longshot Targets, Including Tommy Fleetwood

Click arrow to expand 2022 US Open odds via BetMGM

2022 US Open Odds

golfer odds
Rory McIlroy +1100
Justin Thomas +1200
Jon Rahm +1400
Scottie Scheffler +1400
Cameron Smith +2200
Patrick Cantlay +2200
Xander Schauffele +2200
Jordan Spieth +2500
Will Zalatoris +2500
Colin Morikawa +2800
Matt Fitzpatrick +2800
Sam Burns +2800
Viktor Hovland +2800
Shane Lowry +3300
Tony Finau +3300
Brooks Koepka +4000
Dustin Johnson +4000
Hideki Matsuyama +4000
Joaquin Niemann +4000
Sungjae Im +4000
Cameron Young +5000
Corey Conners +5000
Daniel Berger +5000
Max Homa +5000
Tommy Fleetwood +5000
Billy Horschel +5000
Abraham Ancer +6600
Davis Riley +6600
Justin Rose +6600
Louis Oosthuizen +6600
Myth Pereira +6600
Aaron Wise +8000
Bryson DeChambeau +8000
Harold Varner III +8000
Patrick Reed +8000
Tyrrell Hatton +8000
Webb Simpson +8000
Keegan Bradley +10000
Seamus Power +10000
Talor Gooch +10000
Adam Scott +12500
Gary Woodland +12500
Jason Kokrak +12500
Kevin Na +12500
Sergio Garcia +12500
Brian Harman +15000
Francesco Molinari +15000
Luke List +15000
Marc Leishman +15000
Russell Henley +15000
Si Woo Kim +15000
Tom Hoge +15000
Adam Hadwin +15000
Alex Noren +20000
KH Lee +20000
Phil Mickelson +20000
Sebastian Munoz +20000
Thomas Pieters +20000
Branden Grace +25000
Cameron Tringale +25000
Erik van Rooyen +25000
Harris English +25000
Kevin Kisner +25000
Lucas Herbert +25000
Ryan Fox +25000
Sepp Straka +25000
Victor Perez +25000
Denny McCarthy +25000
Joel Dahmen +30000
Lanto Griffin +30000
Mackenzie Hughes +30000
Matthew NeSmith +30000
Sam Horsfield +30000
Scott Stallings +30000
Stewart Cink +30000
Thorbjorn Olesen +30000
Wyndham Clark +30000
Taylor Montgomery +30000
Adrian Arnaus +35000
Nick Taylor +35000
Patrick Rodgers +35000
Troy Merritt +35000
Adam Schenk +40000
Andrew Novak +40000
Beau Hossler +40000
Danny Lee +40000
Kevin Chappell +40000
Marcel Schneider +40000
Richard Mansell +40000
Wil Besseling +40000
MJ Daffue +40000
Sebastian Soderberg +40000
Andrew Putnam +50000
Brian Stuard +50000
Callum Tarren +50000
Guido Migliozzi +50000
Joohyung Kim +50000
Kurt Kitayama +50000
Min Woo Lee +50000
Richard Bland +50000
Rikuya Hoshino +50000
Roger Sloan +50000
Sam Stevens +50000
Satoshi Kodaira +50000
Shaun Norris +50000
Erik Barnes +50000
Joseph Bramlett +50000
Nick Hardy +50000
David Lingmerth +50000
Bo Hoag +75000
Harry Hall +75000
Hayden Buckley +75000
Jinichiro Kozuma +75000
Kalle Samoja +75000
Keita Nakajima +75000
Sean Crocker +75000
Todd Sinnott +75000
Yannik Paul +75000
Chris Gotterup +75000
Chase Seiffert +75000
Adrien Dumont de Chassart +100000
Austin Greaser +100000
Ben Silverman +100000
Brady Calkins +100000
Brandon Matthews +100000
Chris Naegel +100000
Daijiro Izumida +100000
Fred Biondi +100000
Grayson Murray +100000
Isaiah Salinda +100000
James Piot +100000
Jesse Mueller +100000
Jim Furyk +100000
Jonas Blixt +100000
Keith Greene +100000
Laird Shepherd +100000
Luke Gannon +100000
Matt McCarty +100000
Maxwell Moldovan +100000
Michael Thorbjornsen +100000
Nicholas Dunlap +100000
Ryan Gerard +100000
Sam Bennett +100000
Sean Jacklin +100000
Stewart Hagestad +100000
Tomoyaso Sugiyama +100000
Travis Vick +100000
William Mouw +100000
Chan Kim +100000
Ben Lorenz +150000
Charles Reiter +150000
Davis Shore +150000

The US Open at the Country Club in Brookline, Mass., marks a fascinating moment in golf history.

Just one week after the debut of the Saudi-backed LIV Golf series in London, which reportedly attracted a host of top-100 players, with more planning to join, the golf world meetings for a major. Players loyal to the PGA TOUR, those who have jumped ship and a host that seem to be tottering on the fence will all be teeing it up for one of the true gems of the golf landscape.

Despite the chatter about money and prestige of late, no one disagrees that the US Open is, and will continue to be, a tentpole of the sport.

In recent years, that has shown itself on the tops of leaderboards. The always difficult test offered by the USGA has a way of weeding out the pretenders and rewarding the world’s best players. Of the last ten winners, only one closed at higher than +5000 (Gary Woodland in 2019) and none exceeded +8000.

For an unpredictable, wide-open sport like golf, that’s a shock.

And yet, the door remains open for a dark horse to crash the party. If anything, the golf world is due to a shocking major champion. Perhaps this is the week we see a long shot nab a major, with these names standing out as golfers with a chance to reign supreme on Sunday.

2022 US Open Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +6600

There’s a bit of a “Charlie Brown kicking the football” effect tied to betting on Tommy Fleetwood to win a major.

The Englishman has shown the ability to compete when the golf course asks a difficult question, earning eight finishes of T19 or better in his 27 major starts in his career. But Fleetwood has not collected a win in the United States, either in a major or on the PGA TOUR.

Fleetwood’s US Open track record, however, is simply too good to ignore. He has two top-five finishes at this event and is playing well of late, with a finish of T16 or better in five of his last nine starts.

Fleetwood’s ball-striking and scrambling ability will both come into play at The Country Club, clearing a path for him to contend this weekend.

Adam Scott +13000

It just doesn’t feel right to see Adam Scott offered at odds this high. We’re talking about a major champion with nine top-five finishes at majors. His success is far from ancient history. He had two major-championship top-10s as recently as 2019.

Even this season, Scott has shown the ability to find his form and compete. He was top five at the Genesis Invitational in February and made the knockout stage with a good week at the Match Play in Austin.

Scott’s putting, once his fatal flaw after the USGA banned anchoring, is now a strength. Scott has been a top-20 putter in the world by strokes gained over the last two years, by DataGolf. That steadiness on the greens will be huge in Brookline, where he enters the week at 130-1 at DraftKings.

Russell Henley +15000

For the casual better, Russell Henley is your weekly reminder to shop odds between sportsbooks. If you simply bet him to win at DraftKings, you’d only get paid out at +6500. BetMGM is offering the same golfer at more than double the price.

I tend to think Henley’s chances fall somewhere between those numbers, but shade closer to the lower mark, making for tones of value on him at BetMGM.

Henley has finished T27 or better in each of his last three US Open appearances. Across all four majors, he’s been incredibly solid, making 13 of his last 15 cuts. Somehow, he has totaled nine top-25 finishes at the majors without cracking the top 10.

Over the last 12 months, only Cameron Smith has gained more strokes per round on approach shots than Henley. His irons are dialed and should be a weapon this weekend, making him a value at 150-1 at BetMGM.

Brian Harman +18000

This number feels astronomical for a player with the combination of US Open success and recent play that we’ve seen from Harman.

The lefty has been in the top 40 of each of his last four US Opens, including a T2 back in 2017. Harman’t missed a cut at a US Open since 2015, and he’s been in the top 20 in three of his last six major starts.

Recently, his game has been in form, with a T18 at the Memorial and a T9 at the Wells Fargo. His chipping him has been a weapon, with Harman ranking seventh in the world in Strokes Gained: Around the Green over the last 24 months.

Success around the green will be crucial this week. According to metrics from DataGolf, the average US Open winner gains 23% of his strokes on the field around the green. That compares to just 14.5% at the average PGA TOUR venue. If you’ve seen pictures or videos of the rough around the greens in Brookline this week, you already know that will be a key skill during this tournament.

Beau Hossler +40000

This one is more of a feeling than anything I can back up with stats and course knowledge. Hossler hasn’t played in a US Open since 2015, hasn’t finished better than T29 in a major, and he has never won on the PGA TOUR. Not a lot to go off there!

Hossler has, however, played very strong golf this season and seems poised to break through eventually. He has two top fives on TOUR this year and has made four straight cuts, with finishes of T32 or better in three of those events.

At 400-1 at BetMGM, a hunch might be enough to back Hossler this week. I certainly like him to hang around through the weekend and even think he makes for a sneaky First Round Leader bet (+15000 at BetMGM). He was T7 after one round as an amateur at the 2012 US Open and was within six of the lead again at the 2015 US Open.

In his first US Open since turning pro, he should outperform expectations.

Leave a Comment

%d bloggers like this: