Everything To Know At The Country Club

Mass hysteria in Massachusetts beckons, as we gear up to handicap 2022 US Open odds for the season’s third Major at The Country Club in Brookline this week. The world of golf has flipped on its head over the last couple weeks with LIV inserting itself into the picture, luring some big PGA TOUR names away with blank checks.

Some of those that have defected will now join those that have stayed at the USGA-run major championship. Let’s dive into the storylines and all the key stats you need to know before betting 2022 US Open odds.

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US OPEN ODDS: THE FAVORITES

Scroll to the bottom for complete outright odds and to compare prices across legal sports betting apps in your state. These are the best available odds on the top-10 favorites.

Boston Tee Party

Players leaving for the LIV golf tour has created a rift between purist players who relish competition in the name of legacy and honor to the TOUR which has built them up to become millionaires and global stars, and the ones who are comfortable putting all of that aside for generational wealth via controversial Saudi government funding.

From an integrity standpoint, there is an atmosphere of good versus evil in the air at the 2022 US Open, and while it remains to be seen how the LIV players will be received by the media and fans in their first cross-TOUR event since being suspended by the PGA TOUR, it will undoubtedly create must-see drama for the week ahead. The US Open has always been my favorite Major to watch, and I couldn’t be more excited with the stakes at hand for this one.

As mentioned earlier, the USGA embodies the same core characteristics in each of its chosen venues, and even if length is lacking a bit this year compared to most, the ability to grind in difficult conditions, particularly out of thick rough and hard-to- hold greens that emphasize short game, will continue to be paramount.

Dating back to 2013, the top-10 players in US Open Event History are Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Louis Oosthuizen, Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Reed, Jim Furyk, Jon Rahm, and Adam Scott.

Top-10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT at the US Open

Just nine players in the field rank above average in each of the above key stat categories I’m looking for this week: Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Shane Lowry, Sam Burns, Aaron Wise, Mito Pereira, Keegan Bradley, and Sebastian Munoz.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: COLLIN MORIKAWA

Collin Morikawa comes of age at the PGA Championship - 2022 us open preview Compared to the first two Majors this season, there is actually a long list of longshots I think can contend at The Country Club, which can happen when the total course yardage is stripped down to 7,200 yards and driving paradigm shifts from distance to accuracy, a more attainable skill for the larger field. I’ve convinced myself that players at the bottom of the board like Mito Pereira, Keegan Bradley, and Kevin Na can win this event, but if I’m picking one player who I think will win the event, it’s Collin Morikawa at a still-tantalizing price across most sports books, and what should be depressed ownership on Draft Kings from a DFS perspective at $10,000 off of a few lackluster results leading in.

The 25-year-old, 2-time Major champion has immediately come out of the gates to prove his game peaks in Major championships. With ten Majors under his belt now, he’s made it through the cut all but once with five top-10s over that span. In every Major Championship since 2020, Collin has gained strokes in both Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy, and SG: APP, proving he is able to dial up his ball striking ahead of the tournaments that matter most. The only “dud” we’ve seen of Collin in a Major came at the 2020 US Open at Winged Foot, which we can give a pass given the course fit there is the antithesis of what he does best. But what’s more encouraging than one of the best players in the world ball-striking well in Majors has been his putter in these biggest stages.

While the flat stick has been a liability for Morikawa throughout his early career, he has gained putting strokes in 70% of his Major appearances, suggesting he is ready to put in the work on the putting green while fully focused in a Major week. For that reason, I’m content to overlook the recent putting woes which have caused him to lose strokes putting in six of his last eights events. The two exceptions over that span? The Masters (T5) and The Genesis (T2). In fact, Morikawa has gained strokes putting a total of four times in the 2022 season, and finished T5 in each of those events. If we’re to believe there’s a 70% chance Collin gains strokes putting in any given Major, then the path to contention is very clear for Morikawa.

Of all the Major venues we’ve seen Morikawa compete at thus far, The Country Club may just be the best fit yet for his game since he made his Major debut at Pebble Beach at the 2019 US Open. At just over 7,200 yards, it mitigates any leg up from pure bombers like we’d seen at the last two US Opens at Torrey Pines and Winged Foot, and instead rewards a premium on hitting fairways, while still possessing plus-distance. Morikawa is one of only two players this week who ranks above average in Driving Distance and top-10 in Driving Accuracy. I’m obligated to point out that Mito Pereira is the other.

Also encouraging for Morikawa at The Country Club are the miniscule greens, which are second only to Pebble Beach in terms of smallest average green size at a Major. Small greens will always put an emphasis on approach, his greatest skill, and his elite form in total driving should position him as well to attack aggressive pins from the fairway. A key identity to The Country Club is its volume of blind approach shots, and if there’s one player I trust to hit greens blindfolded, it’s Collin Morikawa.

This is a very appealing spot to back Morikawa, as we get the benefit of buying low on recent results despite the ball striking form remaining at elite levels, now entering an ideal course fit with optimism that the putter can recover in this environment. I have my bets hedged on Morikawa capturing the third leg of the career Grand Slam at 25 years old come this Sunday.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR AT THE 2022 US OPEN

us open odds

In my model, I’m emphasizing SG: APP, SG: TOT (Difficult Scoring Conditions), Total Driving (Driving Accuracy + Driving Distance), prox 175+, and Par-4: 450+ followed by a more balanced mix of SG: ARG, Par-3 Scoring, Bogey Avoidance (Difficult Scoring Conditions), Comp Course History, US Open Event History, and SG: P. It’s a lot to feed in this week, but there’s a long list of boxes to check to become a Major champion, especially at The Country Club.

Model Favorites

Just as he was the last time we saw him in the field, Jon Rahm, the defending US Open champion claims the No. 1 spot in my model. That’s a credit to ranking No. 1 overall in Total Driving and SG: Ball Striking, and top-5 in SG: TOT (Difficult Scoring Conditions), Bogey Avoidance (Difficult Scoring Conditions), Comp Course History, and Prox 175+. He did not pass the eye test last we saw him at the Memorial, but still managed to find himself inside the top-10 without his best stuff from him anyway. Rahm’s ability to find fairways with driving in hand is going to make him a dangerous presence in the field this week, especially if he can continue on with the short game touch he found at the Memorial.

After Rahm, the rest of my model’s top 10 this week features Matt Fitzpatrick, Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry, Aaron Wise, Max Homa, and Hideki Matsuyama.

For my betting card, I’ve tried to stay patient and wait for odds to drift when Major week is officially upon us on Monday. I, however, have not done a great job of restraining myself so far. My card as it stands includes Futures on Collin Morikawa (33-1), Cameron Young (66-1), Mito Pereira (99-1), Keegan Bradley (150-1), and Kevin Na (210-1), each placed within the last couple weeks.

Still room for 1-2 more in the 20 to 35-1 odds range to add, so check back in later this week for more updates, as we continue to get more enticing across sportsbooks. Thanks for reading along, best of luck navigating the 2022 US Open odds!

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