This ‘underappreciated’ black swan could bring fresh chaos to the global economy

This ‘underappreciated’ black swan could bring fresh chaos to the global economy

New week, same bounce. Stock futures point to fresh gains as investors grow optimistic that a bond rout is ending, and the Fed’s rate-hike plans will get pruned due to a global slowdown. Of course, that optimism comes as discontent grows around the world from high commodity prices that have driven up food prices, crimped … Read more

Recession is challenging inflation as top fear among stock and bond investors

It’s easy to want to duck for cover given the carnage seen this year in stocks and bonds, particularly with the Federal Reserve vowing to wage an unconditional battle against high inflation. While inflation running at a 40-year high still sits near the top of the list of worries for many investors, another potential bugaboo … Read more

‘Cyccal growth’ could lead 10% ‘relief rally’ for S&P 500 this summer, says Stifel’s Barry Bannister

The beaten down US stock market is poised for a ‘relief rally’ this summer, with the S&P 500 potentially climbing 10%, according to Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel. “We see a relief rally led by cyclical growth (mostly technology) to 4,150 for the S&P 500” this summer as oil prices decline and the … Read more

Analysts see lowest grades for Bank of America and JPMorgan in Fed’s stress test

Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. emerged with the lowest marks among the overall passing grade for banks in the Fed’s annual stress test, analysts at Jefferies and Citigroup said Friday. Also weighing in on the stress test, Morgan Stanley analyst Betsy Graseck cut her price targets for Bank of America Corp. … Read more

Should the Fed start selling its mortgage holdings at a loss to fortify its inflation fight?

Yet a big question still facing investors, lenders and anyone trying to navigate the still-hot housing market is whether the Federal Reserve will start selling its trove of mortgage holdings to fortify its inflation fight. The central bank is so far trying to counter inflation by more traditional means: raising benchmark interest rates. No doubt, … Read more

Here’s how much S&P 500 companies that make most of their money in US have outperformed their global-faced rivals

Multinational is one thing, but 2022 hasn’t been the year for stocks to have a truly international presence. According to analysis from Goldman Sachs, S&P 500 companies with high domestic sales exposure have been outperforming stocks with a high international sales by 9 percentage points. Granted, it isn’t a great performance, with the domestic basket … Read more

Opinion: Jerome Powell is the worst Federal Reserve policy maker in my lifetime

In the history of the Federal Reserve, the most revered chairmen are William McChesney Martin, Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan. All gained their reputation by decisive monetary policy action at times when stock and bond markets did not want or expect them to act. William McChesney Martin was blamed for creating the recessions in the … Read more

Fed says banks could withstand 10% unemployment, 55% stock price drop in annual stress test

The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday projected the potential for a rockier road ahead for banks than it did a year ago, but said the 33 financial institutions it passed its annual stress test of capital reserves. The Fed estimated $612 billion in losses potential for banks in its most severe economic scenario, and said … Read more

Crypto crash: forced selling cools down; correlation with equities back in focus

Hello! Welcome back to Distributed Ledger, our weekly crypto newsletter that reaches your inbox every Thursday. I’ll walk you through what’s going on in the current bear market. As usual, find me on Twitter at @FrancesYue_ to send feedback, or tell us what you think we should cover. You can also reach me through email … Read more

The US cities where homes are most at risk from hurricanes and other storm damage

As the country enters hurricane season from June 1 to the end of November, homes in New York and Miami are at the highest risk for property damage, according to a report released Wednesday from housing-research firm CoreLogic. Overall, more than 33 million homes in America are at risk of suffering damage from hurricanes, according … Read more